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At the Washington summit this July, NATO does not plan to offer Ukraine a formal invitation or a concrete path to membership. According to The Hill, the question of membership will not be raised while Ukraine is at war with Russia, because otherwise NATO would also be at war with Russia. According to the publication, it is also doubtful that Ukraine will be able to join the alliance once the war is over, since there is no certainty that NATO's collective defense guarantee will deter Russia from attacking again.
"Doubts about Ukraine's membership should not be surprising. NATO's dirty secret is that since the end of the Cold War, the organization has not admitted countries that needed to be protected from Russian aggression. The first two waves of expansion in 1999 and 2004, during which all former Warsaw Pact members, the Baltic states and Slovenia were admitted, came at a time when NATO and Russia were focused on forging a cooperative relationship,” writes The Hill.
The Balkan countries, later accepted into NATO, were separated from Russia by other NATO members. They might be vulnerable to Russian interference in their internal affairs, but not to an armed attack that would trigger NATO's collective defense obligations.
Finland and Sweden, which were the last to be accepted, are also no exception, the publication writes.
"These two Scandinavian states have powerful militaries and a long history of cooperation with NATO. Unlike other new members, they have actually strengthened NATO since their accession. Instead of protecting them, NATO is likely to turn to them for help in protection of other allies," the article notes.
As The Hill writes, Ukraine could use Sweden's Cold War model, which could be adapted to current conditions.
"During the Cold War, Sweden was nominally a neutral country, had a strong defense industry and a capable armed forces. But it also had close security and intelligence cooperation with the United States and other NATO allies. At the time, this cooperation was kept secret, but the USSR undoubtedly knew about it. And this knowledge served as a powerful deterrent to military aggression," the article says.
To make Ukraine a "new Sweden," NATO must increase support for rebuilding Ukraine's defense industry and training its armed forces, as well as close cooperation in security and intelligence, while ensuring a steady flow of support for at least the next decade.
Additionally, assistance to Ukraine should include cooperation in reforming its economy and political system to European standards, since, as The Hill notes, the Swedish model worked in part because Sweden was a strong democracy with an efficient market economy.
In this way, Ukraine can create a reliable deterrent against Russia outside of NATO. “But this will not happen as long as NATO harbors illusions about membership and tempts Ukraine to achieve this. It is high time to abandon this fantasy and focus on what is feasible and sufficient for the security of Ukraine,” the publication believes.
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Негізгі бет Ukraine can defend itself from Russia without joining NATO
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